Tesla (TSLA.US) Boom Comes From 'AI Bubble' as Market Cap Soars Over $240 Billion in 11 Days?

Recently, the stock price all the way "soaring" Tesla (TSLA.US) in 11 consecutive rises in the amazing record, a snow was almost kicked out of the "United States of America's seven giants" shame: local time on July 10, Tesla closed at 263.26 On July 10, local time, Tesla closed at 263.26 U.S. dollars, rising for the 11th consecutive trading day, and its total market capitalization rose by 242.3 billion U.S. dollars (about 1.77 trillion yuan).

As recently as February this year, Tesla's market value evaporated by more than $210 billion due to a spate of bad news, making it the only stock among the seven U.S. giants to fall in the past 12 months, to the extent that Wall Street was hotly debating whether Tesla could maintain its position in the secondary market.

However, in less than three months, Tesla has rebounded nearly 90% from its low of $138.80, not far from its high of $299 a year ago. The market has come out of such a rally because its Q1 results and Q2 sales have exceeded market expectations, and the artificial intelligence business may be undervalued.

However, not everyone is optimistic about Tesla's prospects. For example, known as the "old bond king" of the famous investor Bill Gross (Bill Gross) Tesla's current share price trend is like a "mode cause stock", the fundamentals are not enough to support its rise.

Facing sales bottlenecks, Tesla bets on entry-level economic models

Tesla's revenue and profit fell in the first quarter, according to previous financial reports. While revenue exceeded Wall Street analysts' previous expectations, adjusted diluted revenue did not meet analysts' expectations.

It was revealed that in the first quarter of 2024, Tesla's total revenue was $21.301 billion, down 9% year-over-year, the largest drop since 2012; net income was $1.144 billion compared to $2.539 billion in the same period last year; and net income to common shareholders was $1.129 billion, a sharp drop of 55% year-over-year.

According to business segments, Q1 total revenue from automotive-related businesses was $17.378 billion, down 13% from $19.963 billion a year ago, and down from $21.563 billion in the previous quarter; Q1 revenue from power generation and energy storage was $1.635 billion, up 78% year-on-year; and $2.288 billion from services and other businesses, a up 25% year-over-year.

After a mixed first quarter, Tesla's recent uptick may have been driven largely by delivery numbers that exceeded expectations in the second quarter.

According to Wisdom Financial App, Tesla's total deliveries reached 444,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2024, down 4.8% from the same period last year, the first of two consecutive quarters of year-on-year sales declines for Tesla; in the first half of this year, Tesla delivered 830,800 vehicles globally, a 6.6% year-on-year decline in sales but still exceeding the pessimistic expectations of Wall Street.

Currently, Tesla's models include the Modell 3/Y, Model S, Model X, and CybertruckTesla Semi. As the company's main sales force, the Model 3/Y series produced 386,600 units and delivered 422,400 units in the quarter, exceeding both production and sales expectations.

Although Tesla did not release sales figures for other segments, media estimates put Model S/X sales roughly between 12,000 and 13,000 units, down about 31% to 37% compared to the same period last year; Cybertruck deliveries in the second quarter were about 8,000 to 9,000 units.

Four years after its release, mass production of the Cybertruck, an all-electric pickup truck, continues to be convoluted. Deliveries, delays or recalls have been suspended several times this year due to various manufacturing process issues. According to a recent message sent by the company to some Cybertruck reservation holders, delivery dates for the non-base series Cybertruck could wait until next year.

Tesla's product portfolio is not very extensive compared to traditional automakers, and it is now facing difficulties with aging models and new "green and yellow" products. In order to attract consumers, Tesla plans to launch cheaper next-generation electric cars.

Previously, Tesla has revealed that it will launch a compact pure electric car "Model 2" with a price of about $25,000, and the entry-level pure electric car model positioned for the mass market may become the most affordable model in Tesla's product line. At a recent financial reporting meeting, Musk also said that the affordable new car is scheduled to begin production in early 2025 or at the end of this year, earlier than expected, and that the new car will be produced on the company's existing production line without additional investment in the construction of a new production line, helping the company to fully utilize its existing production capacity and achieve rapid production growth.

Volume price + consumers do not buy, Tesla Motors main business growth in the cold

Whether it is the continuous price cuts in recent years, or the Modell 2, which is mainly affordable, it seems to indicate that Tesla, which has focused on the high-end market in the past, can't escape the acceleration of new energy vehicles. This year, with Tesla taking the lead in price cuts, Ideal, Wuling, Changan, Beijing Hyundai and many other automobile companies have followed suit to low prices in exchange for market share.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the price of lithium carbonate continues to be in the trough, providing room for further price cuts for automobile companies; in the second half of this year, economic growth is still facing the risk of slowing down, and consumer confidence is expected to continue to be low, making it difficult for the competitive situation for automobile companies to change in the short term.

According to Hearing Tide TI statistics, most of the domestic mainstream new energy vehicle brands are still a long way from completing their annual sales targets, and automobile companies are still facing great sales pressure in the second half of the year.

According to Wisdom Financial APP, in addition to facing many emerging new energy vehicle companies in the Chinese market "chase and intercept", Tesla in the U.S. market situation is not optimistic.

Cox Automotive, a well-known automotive data company, pointed out in the "Kelley Blue Book", although Q2 U.S. electric vehicle sales hit a record high, but Tesla U.S. sales fell by 6.3%, the first time the market share fell below 50% to 49.7%; in contrast, Mercedes Benz, General Motors, Ford, Hyundai and Kia in the U.S. market in the second quarter of the year-on-year growth in sales of 11.3%. 11.3%.

When the U.S. Treasury Department's new battery purchasing rules take effect on January 1, 2024, many electric vehicles, including the Tesla Model Y, including the Cybertruck all-wheel-drive version, have lost their eligibility for up to $7,500 in tax credits. The number of electric vehicles eligible for the U.S. electric vehicle tax credit dropped from 43 to 19 after the new rules took effect.

While the subsidies are dropping, a recent survey by the American Automobile Association (AAA) also shows that a majority of U.S. consumers (63 percent) say they are "unlikely or less likely" to buy an electric vehicle. Only 18 percent of respondents said they were "very likely" or "likely" to buy an electric vehicle. Cost, mileage anxiety and lack of charging infrastructure have become key factors in consumer decision-making.

Meanwhile, U.S. consumer interest in hybrid vehicles is on the rise. In the first quarter of this year, Toyota's RAV4 hybrid sales in the U.S. soared 195%, Prius hybrid sales rose 105%, and Camry hybrid sales rose 143%; Ford Motor Co.'s total hybrid sales in Q1 also rose 42% to 38,421 units, the company's highest since the sale of hybrid vehicles.

II business becomes the new focus of the market

While the car business is facing an unfavorable situation, more and more investors are turning their attention to Tesla's artificial intelligence, autonomous driving and energy storage business.

In April this year, Musk announced the driverless cab (Robotaxi) release plan on the social media platform, and confirmed that Robotaxi would be released in August this year. Musk also further pointed out that Tesla's cumulative investment in the field of autopilot (computing power training, large-scale data pipeline and video storage) this year will exceed 10 billion $.

Cathie so-called "female version of Warren Buffett" - Wood (Cathie Wood) as one of Tesla's staunch supporters, she recently said that the opportunity of self-driving cab network and the entire ecosystem will be in the next 5 to 10 years to generate $ 8 trillion to $ 10 trillion in revenues, half of which is expected to belong to Tesla. half is expected to belong to Tesla.

Tesla is also investing $500 million in a Dojo supercomputer at its Buffalo, New York, super factory to improve Tesla's Autopilot system, according to foreign media reports. Morgan Stanley analysts previously believed the system would add $500 billion in the foreseeable future.

According to the WisdomTree app, as of the first quarter of this year, energy production and storage remained Tesla's most profitable business, with revenue up 7% year-over-year, gross profit up 140% year-over-year, and energy storage deployments reaching 4.1 record GWh. The company said it will continue to push its 40 company in Lathrop, California, at the California GWh Superfactory to full production, and the Shanghai The energy storage super plant is scheduled to open in May 2024 and complete volume production in the first quarter of 2025.

In general, in Tesla, "car, storage, storage" AI in the layout, although the first half of the automotive business performance slightly exceeded expectations, but the medium and long term is still facing the pressure of growth; energy storage business is in a period of rapid development, the future also need to compete with the domestic many pioneering enterprises. In contrast, when the capital market enthusiastically pursue the concept of artificial intelligence, automatic driving and artificial intelligence business may be the "driving force behind the amazing rise in Tesla's share price".

Volume price + consumers do not buy, Tesla Motors main business growth in the cold

Whether it is the continuous price cuts in recent years, or the Modell 2, which is mainly affordable, it seems to indicate that Tesla, which has focused on the high-end market in the past, can't escape the acceleration of new energy vehicles. This year, with Tesla taking the lead in price cuts, Ideal, Wuling, Changan, Beijing Hyundai and many other automobile companies have followed suit to low prices in exchange for market share.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the price of lithium carbonate continues to be in the trough, providing room for further price cuts for automobile companies; in the second half of this year, economic growth is still facing the risk of slowing down, and consumer confidence is expected to continue to be low, making it difficult for the competitive situation for automobile companies to change in the short term.

According to Hearing Tide TI statistics, most of the domestic mainstream new energy vehicle brands are still a long way from completing their annual sales targets, and automobile companies are still facing great sales pressure in the second half of the year.

According to Wisdom Financial APP, in addition to facing many emerging new energy vehicle companies in the Chinese market "chase and intercept", Tesla in the U.S. market situation is not optimistic.

Cox Automotive, a well-known automotive data company, pointed out in the "Kelley Blue Book", although Q2 U.S. electric vehicle sales hit a record high, but Tesla U.S. sales fell by 6.3%, the first time the market share fell below 50% to 49.7%; in contrast, Mercedes Benz, General Motors, Ford, Hyundai and Kia in the U.S. market in the second quarter of the year-on-year growth in sales of 11.3%. 11.3%.

When the U.S. Treasury Department's new battery purchasing rules take effect on January 1, 2024, many electric vehicles, including the Tesla Model Y, including the Cybertruck all-wheel-drive version, have lost their eligibility for up to $7,500 in tax credits. The number of electric vehicles eligible for the U.S. electric vehicle tax credit dropped from 43 to 19 after the new rules took effect.

While the subsidies are dropping, a recent survey by the American Automobile Association (AAA) also shows that a majority of U.S. consumers (63 percent) say they are "unlikely or less likely" to buy an electric vehicle. Only 18 percent of respondents said they were "very likely" or "likely" to buy an electric vehicle. Cost, mileage anxiety and lack of charging infrastructure have become key factors in consumer decision-making.

Meanwhile, U.S. consumer interest in hybrid vehicles is on the rise. In the first quarter of this year, Toyota's RAV4 hybrid sales in the U.S. soared 195%, Prius hybrid sales rose 105%, and Camry hybrid sales rose 143%; Ford Motor Co.'s total hybrid sales in Q1 also rose 42% to 38,421 units, the company's highest since the sale of hybrid vehicles.

II business becomes the new focus of the market

While the car business is facing an unfavorable situation, more and more investors are turning their attention to Tesla's artificial intelligence, autonomous driving and energy storage business.

In April this year, Musk announced the driverless cab (Robotaxi) release plan on the social media platform, and confirmed that Robotaxi would be released in August this year. Musk also further pointed out that Tesla's cumulative investment in the field of autopilot (computing power training, large-scale data pipeline and video storage) this year will exceed 10 billion $.

Cathie so-called "female version of Warren Buffett" - Wood (Cathie Wood) as one of Tesla's staunch supporters, she recently said that the opportunity of self-driving cab network and the entire ecosystem will be in the next 5 to 10 years to generate $ 8 trillion to $ 10 trillion in revenues, half of which is expected to belong to Tesla. half is expected to belong to Tesla.

Tesla is also investing $500 million in a Dojo supercomputer at its Buffalo, New York, super factory to improve Tesla's Autopilot system, according to foreign media reports. Morgan Stanley analysts previously believed the system would add $500 billion in the foreseeable future.

According to the WisdomTree app, as of the first quarter of this year, energy production and storage remained Tesla's most profitable business, with revenue up 7% year-over-year, gross profit up 140% year-over-year, and energy storage deployments reaching 4.1 record GWh. The company said it will continue to push its 40 company in Lathrop, California, at the California GWh Superfactory to full production, and the Shanghai The energy storage super plant is scheduled to open in May 2024 and complete volume production in the first quarter of 2025.

In general, in Tesla, "car, storage, storage" AI in the layout, although the first half of the automotive business performance slightly exceeded expectations, but the medium and long term is still facing the pressure of growth; energy storage business is in a period of rapid development, the future also need to compete with the domestic many pioneering enterprises. In contrast, when the capital market enthusiastically pursue the concept of artificial intelligence, automatic driving and artificial intelligence business may be the "driving force behind the amazing rise in Tesla's share price".